What Actually Happened

Ultimately, China and Japan managed to prevent further escalation in the Summer of 2016. The United States observed the situation closely but was not drawn into taking action. Later that year, the United States and other pacific nations held joint exercises with the Chinese navy in a sign of continued cooperation. 

In 2018, Beijing and Tokyo both expressed a desire to “reset” bilateral ties. To this end, the two countries resumed economic talks for the first time in seven years and agreed to establish a crisis hotline to avoid unintended military incidents in the East China Sea. The hotline was delayed, but ultimately established in the spring of 2023. In 2019, China and Japan also took steps to plan an official state visit by Xi Jinping to Tokyo. As of 2023, however, little progress toward a state visit has been made. 

Meanwhile, neither country has lessened its involvement in the East China Sea. Japan has moved to build up its military strength, in part to counter Chinese activity in the region. China and Japan have each increased their military capabilities in the area, installing radar and missile systems and continuing to conduct military drills. The United States has participated in joint exercises with Japan, flying its aircraft over the East China Sea. Despite increased dialogue between the two countries, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands remain a potential source of conflict.