The Issue

Tensions between China and Japan have sporadically erupted in the East China Sea over the five small, uninhabited islands the Japanese refer to as the Senkaku and the Chinese call the Diaoyu. The islands have been the subject of competing sovereignty claims by China, Japan, and Taiwan for decades. After a 2010 flare in tensions, Chinese and Japanese naval and air forces began to come in increasingly frequent contact, as both countries sought to demonstrate control over the islands. Both countries established Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ) and demanded that all aircraft give notice before entering them. Both of these zones include the disputed islands. Neither country has recognized the other’s ADIZ, and both continue to send civilian and military aircraft into the East China Sea airspace, claiming that they are doing so legitimately under international law. The increasing tensions in the East China Sea raised concern among observers about the risk of a miscalculation or accident sparking an armed clash between Asia’s two largest powers. 

The United States has maintained a long-standing policy of neutrality in the dispute. As tensions rose, policymakers in Washington grew concerned that competing U.S. interests and commitments could drag the country into the fray. On one hand, the United States is treaty bound to defend Japan in the event of an attack. On the other hand, the United States also has a strong interest in maintaining a stable relationship with China, a major trade partner. The dispute has forced the United States to consider what price it would be willing to pay to fulfill its treaty commitment to Japan’s defense. This is particularly important given that a change in U.S. policy or a U.S. intervention could alter the United States’ relationship with China or Japan. A change in policy could also jeopardize other pressing interests that require the cooperation of either country. These interests include nuclear nonproliferation, global economic growth, climate change mitigation, and the safety of Americans abroad.

Decision Point–Set in September 2016

Over the Summer of 2016, tensions in the East China Sea suddenly ratcheted up. In June, a Chinese frigate sailed through the disputed zone of the East China Sea. Although Chinese coast guard ships passed through the area before, this marked the first appearance of a Chinese naval vessel. In the following weeks, China alleged that Japanese fighters intercepted its military aircraft over the disputed islands. During the incident, Japan’s fighters briefly locked weapons radar on the Chinese aircraft. Two months later, hundreds of Chinese fishing vessels appeared in the waters near the disputed islands in the East China Sea. For the first time, these vessels were accompanied by seven Chinese law enforcement vessels.

With tensions showing no sign of easing, policymakers and media outlets alike have turned their eyes to Washington to see how the United States will respond. The president has convened a National Security Council meeting to consider possible action it could take to ease related tensions.