Background

Historically, the region in and around South Sudan has struggled with harsh geography, an unforgiving climate, an underdeveloped economy, and dysfunctional, often feuding, governments. South Sudan’s huge oil deposits have fallen under mismanagement and the threat of violence. The oil wealth has not benefited most of the South Sudanese people. Given these factors, even in peacetime the population of South Sudan has lived on the edge of a humanitarian disaster. 

The crisis that broke out in 2013 has its roots in South Sudan’s decades-long struggle for independence from Sudan. For the first half of the twentieth century, Sudan was a colonial territory under joint British and Egyptian rule. Under this arrangement, Sudan was effectively treated as two separate regions: a mostly Muslim north and a largely Christian or animist south. When Sudan gained its independence from colonial rule in 1956, these divisions—and questions of control over natural resources—became a source of simmering tension. Almost immediately after Sudan gained its independence, southern Sudanese groups rebelled against the government in Khartoum. 

The two regions reached a fragile peace in 1972, which granted southern Sudan a degree of autonomy. But just over a decade later, southern groups rose up again over violations of the peace settlement. This second civil war was marked by intense violence against civilians. Rough estimates place the war’s death toll as high as 2.5 million people, mostly civilians.

Sudan’s second civil war ended in 2005. As part of the peace deal to end the war, the south was given a chance to vote on whether to become an independent country. Six years later South Sudan overwhelmingly voted for independence. Salva Kiir, the head of the main southern rebel group, became South Sudan’s first president. He appointed a rival militia leader, Riek Machar, as his vice president. Machar represented the Nuer ethnic group (making up 16 percent of the population). Kiir represented the Dinka (36 percent). Relations between these groups, which are South Sudan’s largest ethnicities, had deteriorated over previous decades. Kiir believed that Machar’s appointment would help unify the new country. 

However, tensions quickly emerged in the new country. The two leaders disagreed over how to distribute oil profits. Kiir wanted the profits to flow into the central government. However,  Machar said they should go to South Sudan’s individual states. (Machar’s home state of Unity has some of the nation’s richest oil fields.) Additionally, Kiir took steps to bolster his executive powers, whereas Machar argued for power to be less centralized. 

Concerned that these tensions could lead to conflict, the UN Security Council voted to establish a peacekeeping force in the country. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) tasked nearly 9000 personnel with supporting South Sudanese government forces in maintaining peace. Still, the new country faced grave challenges ahead.

In mid-2013, Kiir launched a series of investigations and suspended several high-ranking government officials. He portrayed the investigations as anticorruption measures, but the move was widely denounced as an attempt to strengthen his hold on power by removing potential threats. Claiming his rivals were plotting a coup, Kiir fired his entire cabinet, including Machar. Machar had declared that he would challenge Kiir in the next presidential election. 

In December 2013, violence erupted in Juba, South Sudan’s capital, between ethnic Dinka and ethnic Nuer soldiers in the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), then South Sudan’s national army. The resulting firefight killed at least five hundred people, including civilians. As Dinka soldiers moved to massacre Nuers, Nuer militias retaliated in kind.

This resulted in thousands of executions. Nuer soldiers mutinied and deserted across the country. Machar fled Juba, rallying a rebel Nuer army. Since then, violence has continued across South Sudan, primarily between the SPLA, loyal to Kiir, and Machar’s rebel forces. Other militias have also conducted attacks, which have caught civilians in the crossfire.

This conflict disrupted the livelihood of millions of South Sudanese by severely threatening agriculture, on which many rely to support themselves and their families. Many farmers were forced to abandon their fields or face violence from the warring parties and loosely affiliated gangs.  Constant disruptions to South Sudan’s agricultural production sparked a food crisis leading 2.5 million people to face starvation. 

The waves of violence gripping South Sudan drew widespread outrage. U.S. President Barack Obama condemned the outbreak of fighting in December 2013. The UN Security Council also voted to nearly double the size of the peacekeeping mission that had been stationed in the country. Despite this, the civil war raged on and efforts to negotiate a ceasefire continued to fail. Policymakers grew increasingly concerned that the worst of the conflict was yet to come.