The Issue

In the small island country of Bahrain, located in the Persian Gulf (sometimes known as the Arabian Gulf), government and security forces have clashed with protesters seeking democratic reform. Bahrain’s leaders belong to the Sunni sect of Islam, a minority in the country; the majority of Bahrainis are Shiite. Bahrain has a history of Sunni-Shiite tension. However, that tension is only one dimension of the problems that have unfolded in the country. Broader societal stresses also drive calls for reform. These issues include repression, disenfranchisement, and limited economic opportunity for the country’s majority.

Bahraini activists, inspired by uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia, gathered in the country’s capital, Manama, in February 2011. They demanded reforms from the government. These reforms included a new constitution that would provide an elected parliament and independent courts. Also included in the reforms were the release of protesters arrested in police crackdowns as well as freedom of expression. Some opposition groups made more forceful calls for Bahrain to become a true constitutional monarchy and for an end to King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa’s rule. The ruling Al Khalifa family responded to these protests with force and mass arrests.

Bahrain has, for decades, been a strategically important partner of the United States. This is mainly because of its location as the base for the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet. U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf has helped ensure the free flow of oil from the Middle East. As a result, the United States has formed a close economic and military relationship with the kingdom. However, the unrest raised the question of whether the United States should support calls for democratic reform in Bahrain. However, the United States also had to consider if doing so risked damaging the U.S.-Bahrain relationship and threatened U.S. strategic interests in the country. 

Decision Point—Set in August 2014

Three years after Bahrain’s 2011 uprising, progress toward reform has stalled. In January 2014, the government suspended its “national dialogue” with opposition groups. The government blamed the opposition for the breakdown. Soon after, renewed unrest gripped the country. On February 14—the anniversary of the initial uprising—thousands of protestors calling for King Hamad’s ouster gathered in Bahrain’s capital, Manama. The protestors met stiff resistance from security forces. This resulted in several injuries and dozens of arrests. Outside the capital, a bomb struck a police bus in a Shiite village, killing one police officer. Three more officers were killed by another bomb weeks later. Although mainstream opposition groups denied any connection to the bombings and condemned the acts, the attacks only amplified an already severe crackdown by Bahrain’s security forces, especially in predominantly Shiite areas. Activists, along with international human rights organizations, are pressuring the United States, one of Bahrain’s principal economic and military partners, to respond. 

In this context, the president has called a National Security Council (NSC) meeting to decide how to respond to the unrest. Specifically, the NSC will need to decide whether the United States should continue to support the government of Bahrain, which has proved to be a staunch U.S. ally, or support the protesters’ demands—potentially at the expense of U.S. strategic interests. They may also decide to seek out some middle ground.