Role of the United States
For the United States, the uprising in Bahrain raised a conflict between U.S. interests and values. The Barack Obama administration had to balance the United States’ moral and political values—which included promoting democratic values and respect for human rights—on the one hand, with its ongoing strategic concerns in the region on the other. U.S. operations to combat terrorist groups were ongoing in the region, U.S. forces had been in Afghanistan for more than a decade, and tensions with Iran remained high. Safeguarding U.S. interests in the region often depended on cooperation with Arab governments, including in Bahrain.
Bahrain under the Al Khalifa family had long been a U.S. ally. It had helped ensure the free flow of oil from the Middle East to other parts of the world. It also hosted the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, which has patrolled the Persian Gulf and helped deter U.S. adversaries such as Iran. Bahrain and the United States have also worked together closely to combat terrorism in the region. Moreover, the United States has enjoyed close commercial and economic relations with Bahrain.
Renewed instability in Bahrain threatened these strategic and economic interests. For example, increased U.S. pressure on the Bahraini government for democratic reforms could anger the ruling family, which could reduce U.S.-Bahrain cooperation in response. Intensified domestic opposition could weaken or topple the government. This could result in a power vacuum or an uncertain transition during which the United States would lack a reliable partner.
Yet there were also American values to consider. U.S. policymakers have often emphasized support for democracy and freedom as a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. This made it difficult for Washington to ignore the Bahraini opposition groups’ demands for a more just and equitable society in Bahrain. However, Bahrain was already considered relatively progressive by the standards of the Persian Gulf region—in the area of women’s rights for example. Strong American pressure on the regime could cause instability that would endanger the freedoms that Bahrainis already enjoyed.
Seeking to balance its interests and values, the United States did not fully embrace the Bahraini demonstrators in 2011. The public U.S. response to the initial uprising in Bahrain was muted. Obama encouraged open dialogue between the government and the opposition. However, he remained silent on the use of force against protestors and the deployment of Saudi and Emirati troops to help quell the uprising. Later in 2011, the United States temporarily suspended a $53 million arms deal, pending the findings of Bahrain’s investigation of the uprising. The deal went forward less than a year later. The Obama administration, however, maintained partial restrictions blocking the sale of equipment that could be used against protestors, such as tear gas.
The United States had no shortage of options in dealing with a crisis in Bahrain. The question was what combination of them would be most successful in this case. In general, the options fell into four main categories:
Policy Options
No Action
NSC members could prioritize preserving the strategic benefits of the U.S. relationship with Bahrain and decide not to place any public pressure on the ruling family. This could still allow for U.S. diplomats to advocate for human rights privately in their interactions with the Bahraini government. However, the United States would do nothing to call into question its support for the ruling family.
Diplomatic measures
The United States could put diplomatic pressure on Bahrain in several ways. This could include publicly criticizing the Bahraini government, or even articulating U.S. concern for the situation in an international forum such as the United Nations. This could highlight the issue to the world. Greater international attention could pressure Bahraini authorities to avoid using force against protests. The government could also be pushed to hold talks with opposition leaders.
Economic measures
NSC members could place more concrete pressure on Bahrain with economic measures. These could include threatening to suspend the U.S.-Bahrain Free Trade Agreement until Bahrain fully complied with the recommendations laid out in the BICI report. The United States could also target foreign aid toward organizations that aligned with U.S. values, such as specific opposition groups or reformers within the monarchy.
Military measures
Since the core of the U.S.-Bahrain relationship is founded on strategic military cooperation, the most robust U.S. action toward Bahrain would target the U.S. military presence there. Military measures could entail threatening to cut off military assistance until certain reforms were made. The United States could also leverage its longstanding military presence by moving the Fifth Fleet to a different country unless the Bahraini government implements certain reforms.