Flashpoints

To add spice or challenge to the role-play, partway through the discussion throw in one of the following flash points—additional hypothetical developments that fit within the case’s existing decision point—or create your own. 

1. A new intelligence report reveals that one of the senior al-Qaeda members expected to be present at the compound is a U.S. citizen.
2. A group of American and international nongovernmental organizations releases a major report contending that U.S. drone strikes have killed significantly more civilians than previously believed. The report—filled with stories of hundreds of people, including children, said to have been killed by drones—immediately makes international headlines. Demonstrators fill the streets of major Pakistani cities. Pakistan’s prime minister bars all U.S. drones from Pakistani airspace and vows to shoot down any that violate his order. Pakistani military and intelligence officials privately convey the same message to their U.S. counterparts, emphasizing that they cannot guarantee the safety of any U.S. military aircraft that enter the country. 
3. A U.S. military aircraft, operating in support of Afghan military forces, fires on Pakistani soldiers at a post on the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Initial reports indicate that two Pakistani soldiers are killed and several more are injured. The U.S. secretary of defense, after brief consultations with military commanders, declares the attack a mistake and apologizes. The U.S. president also calls Pakistan’s prime minister to offer condolences over the deaths and makes a public apology from the White House. Still, the prime minister, speaking on Pakistani television, condemns what he calls “unjustified American aggression, which has taken Pakistani lives again and again and again.” He pledges to “urgently reassess” U.S.-Pakistani ties.
4. The U.S. Embassy in Islamabad reports a sudden military lockdown in the city amid strong rumors of a coup d’état. Pakistani television stations report that a faction of senior army leaders has decided to arrest the prime minister and take power themselves “in order to preserve the unity and security of the Pakistani state.” The U.S. secretary of state briefly reaches the prime minister by phone; he promises that he is in no danger before the call is abruptly cut off. 

After introducing a flash point, you can help students refocus their discussion by considering critical questions such as these:

1. Who is affected by this event or development, and how?
2. Is there any uncertainty about what has taken place? How credible is the report?
3. Does this event or development affect the feasibility of any policy options? If so, how?
4. Does this event or development affect the desirability of any policy options? If so, how?