Flashpoints

To add spice or challenge to the role-play, partway through the discussion throw in one of the following flashpoints—additional hypothetical developments that fit within the case’s existing decision point—or create your own. 

1. After several days of reports that thousands of Sudanese forces are massing with heavy equipment on the Sudan-South Sudan border, Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir announces that he has ordered his forces into South Sudan to “take our territory back.” An offensive, he says, will begin within hours. U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers report that it is unclear whether Bashir is referring to disputed territory, such as Abyei, or the entire country of South Sudan.   
2. A well-organized group of gunmen attacks a base of the UN Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS), killing some fifteen uniformed peacekeepers and civilian staff and wounding many more. U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers cannot immediately confirm who carried out the attack. Salva Kiir and Riek Machar condemn the act and declare that their forces played no part in it. Meanwhile, the UN Secretary General calls for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss how best to reinforce the mandate and capabilities of UNMISS. 
3. The defense minister of Ethiopia, declaring that the country can no longer tolerate the influx of refugees from the South Sudan conflict, announces that Ethiopia will greatly increase its military deployment in South Sudan if Kiir and Machar are unable to make peace before the dry season begins in the coming weeks. “Ethiopia will take control and stop this war,” he says. 

After introducing a flashpoint, you might want to help students refocus their discussion by considering critical questions such as these:

1. Who is affected by this event or development, and how?
2. Is there any uncertainty about what has taken place? How credible is the report?
3. Does this event or development affect the feasibility of any policy options? If so, how?
4. Does this event or development affect the desirability of any policy options? If so, how?