Flashpoints

To add spice or challenge to the role-play, partway through the discussion throw in one of the following flashpoints—additional hypothetical developments that fit within the case’s existing decision point—or create your own. 

1. A coalition of U.S., British, and Nigerian human rights organizations releases a report containing fresh evidence of widespread abuses by Nigerian security forces in their fight against Boko Haram and other insurgent groups. The report ascribes “hundreds, perhaps thousands, of previously unreported deaths” to Nigerian forces. It ignites a firestorm in the international press and on social media. President Buhari says he will not tolerate the abuses and pledges “a full, independent, and transparent investigation” of every charge. However, he also notes that “we are fighting against people who kill civilians, who kidnap and enslave women and children.” Privately, one of Buhari’s senior advisors conveys to the U.S. ambassador in Abuja that the president’s request for heavy military equipment still stands.
2. Only four days after the massive Boko Haram attack in Lagos, two more suicide bombings occur at a crowded commercial center in the city. The first bombing kills six and injures fifteen more. The second occurs twenty minutes later, when emergency personnel and civilians have begun to crowd the scene. Another thirty-two people perish, and some one hundred are injured. Boko Haram has not yet claimed responsibility for the blasts, though political leaders and observers widely assume it is responsible. At the presidential residence in Abuja, President Buhari pledges “to stop at nothing to protect all Nigerians from the scourge of terrorism.” In a conversation with the U.S. ambassador in Abuja, one of Buhari’s senior advisors argues that the attacks should ensure swift and favorable consideration of Nigeria’s request for heavy military equipment.
3. Nigeria’s attorney general, who also serves as minister of justice, announces that “several dozen” soldiers will be arrested in the coming days and tried on charges of human rights abuses and extrajudicial killings in the fight against Boko Haram. Reports from U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers in Nigeria, along with media reports, offer competing interpretations. Some believe the announcement is a major step toward accountability and discipline in the Nigerian security forces. Others believe nothing will come of the announcement, which they view as a transparent effort by President Buhari’s administration to curry favor with the United States and other international partners. Following the speech, several senior Nigerian officials tell diplomats at the U.S. embassy in Abuja that they hope this move will allow the United States to consider President Buhari’s request for heavy military equipment more favorably.

After introducing a flashpoint, you might want to help students refocus their discussion by considering critical questions such as these:

1. Who is affected by this event or development, and how?
2. Is there any uncertainty about what has taken place? How credible is the report?
3. Does this event or development affect the feasibility of any policy options? If so, how?
4. Does this event or development affect the desirability of any policy options? If so, how?