Flashpoints

To add spice or challenge to the role-play, partway through the discussion throw in one of the following flashpoints—additional hypothetical developments that fit within the case’s existing decision point—or create your own.  

1. Reports emerge that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake has hit Central America, with its epicenter located just outside the Salvadoran capital, San Salvador. While currently unknown, the death toll is estimated to be in the hundreds, and early assessments indicate that the earthquake could cause up to $100 billion in damages throughout El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and surrounding Central American countries. The effects of this earthquake have the potential to be catastrophic in an already-struggling region, destroying buildings, roads, and information and communications technology infrastructure. As a result of the destruction, hundreds of thousands of people could become displaced, many of whom are likely to join the growing number of migrants seeking refuge in the United States. The last time an earthquake of similar magnitude hit El Salvador, the United States granted temporary protected status to those displaced. 
2. Reports emerge from health workers on the Mexican side of the U.S.-Mexico border describing rapidly deteriorating health conditions among asylum seekers. Rumors suggest that there has been an outbreak of cholera—an infectious disease—in several camps near Tijuana, along the Mexican side of the U.S.-Mexico border. Local health-care providers have not confirmed the rumors, but analysts predict that providers would lack adequate resources to support the number of afflicted individuals in the event of an outbreak. Humanitarian organizations call on the United States to send medical teams and resources to the border and to consider admitting afflicted asylum seekers for treatment in the United States, while several anti-immigration groups claim that a potential outbreak could cross into the United States and hold large rallies calling for a complete closure of the southern border. 
3. The Mexican ambassador to the United States indicates in a memo that the Mexican government would be willing to consider a formal safe third country agreement wherein Central American asylum seekers are required to apply for asylum in Mexico before they apply in the United States. However, the Mexican government is requesting significant amounts of security and development assistance in order to make such an agreement feasible. 

After introducing a flashpoint, you might want to help students refocus their discussion by considering critical questions such as these: 

1. Who is affected by this event or development, and how? 
2. Is there any uncertainty about what has taken place? How credible is the report? 
3. Does this event or development affect the feasibility of any policy options? If so, how? 
4. Does this event or development affect the desirability of any policy options? If so, how?