Flashpoints

To add spice or challenge to the role-play, partway through the discussion throw in one of the following flashpoints—additional hypothetical developments that fit within the case’s existing decision point—or create your own. 

1. North Korea conducts another missile test, firing a medium-range missile over the Sea of Japan. Unlike previous tests in which missile debris fell in waters near Japan, this time debris fall on the northern part of the main Japanese island of Honshu. Though the debris hit a rural area, some property damage and injuries—possibly fatal—are reported. Japan’s prime minister immediately declares on television that “Japan will take strong action, together with our allies, to combat the North Korean threat.” Several Japanese government officials are calling their U.S. counterparts seeking to coordinate a response.
2. North Korea’s permanent representative to the United Nations pulls a U.S. official aside at an unrelated UN meeting in New York. The North Korean diplomat says that Pyongyang wants to resume negotiations with the United States over its nuclear program and that all ideas would be considered. To demonstrate its seriousness, the permanent representative says, North Korea would be prepared to allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency into its nuclear facilities and to refrain from further nuclear or missile tests for two years. Pressed by the U.S. official, the North Korean insists that the proposal comes from Kim Jong-un’s government.
3. Following a state visit by Kim Jong-un to the northern Chinese city of Shenyang, the Chinese government announces that China plans to strengthen its economic partnership with North Korea. China, which accounts for 90 percent of North Korea’s foreign trade, will increase the flow of both food and raw materials that could be used to develop North Korea’s missile program despite UN sanctions.  Analysis from the U.S. intelligence community, as well as the intelligence services of South Korea and Japan, indicates that the Chinese government is aiming to demonstrate that it will not fundamentally change its relationship with North Korea despite its concerns about Kim’s behavior.

After introducing a flashpoint, you might want to help students refocus their discussion by considering critical questions such as these:

1. Who is affected by this event or development, and how?
2. Is there any uncertainty about what has taken place? How credible is the report?
3. Does this event or development affect the feasibility of any policy options? If so, how?
4. Does this event or development affect the desirability of any policy options? If so, how?