Flashpoints

To add challenge to the role-play, partway through the discussion throw in one of the following flashpoints—additional hypothetical developments that fit within the case’s existing decision point—or create your own. These flashpoints are intended to stimulate debate by making students think on their feet and reconsider their initial policy preferences. 

1. Latvian soldiers enforcing martial law in a border village fire on a group of Russian soldiers, who return fire. Initial reports indicate that two soldiers on each side are killed, along with five Latvian civilians. The Latvian government acknowledges that its forces fired first but insists that the Russian soldiers had crossed the border into Latvia. The Russian government denies this, reiterating earlier statements that its forces are conducting routine exercises a reasonable distance away from the border. Photographs appear to show that other Russian soldiers moved the bodies of their fallen comrades after they were killed. Latvia’s prime minister immediately announces on television that “Russia’s aggression will meet with a forceful response from Latvia and our NATO allies.” 
2. In a widely covered speech, the prime minister of a European nation—a NATO ally and a country which has received substantial investment and economic support from Russia in recent years—articulates his view that “Latvia has brought these problems upon itself.” He announces that he will take “all steps at my disposal” to prevent NATO from undertaking a military response to the crisis. He pledges to visit Moscow in the coming days “to discuss with the Russian government how its concerns could be addressed through sensible policy changes in Latvia.”
3. Following urgent consultations with senior officials at the Russian foreign ministry, the U.S. ambassador in Moscow reports that Russia would like to quietly explore a deal. Russia would gradually tone down its rhetoric toward Latvia, reduce its military presence near the border and in the airspace and seas around the Baltics, and ensure that any forces or operatives loyal to Russia close their command center in Latvia and cease provocative activities (though Russia does not admit that these men are Russian soldiers). In exchange, the United States would withdraw NATO personnel from Latvia and cancel NATO’s summer military exercises in the Baltic states. It would also accept the status quo in Ukraine (most notably, Russian control over Crimea) and refrain from attempting to expand NATO membership or increase NATO’s military presence in its eastern European member states, all for an indefinite period. Most critically, the United States would publicly call on—and diplomatically pressure—Latvia to end martial law and accord significant autonomy to areas populated heavily by ethnic Russians. These steps would not be announced publicly so that both Washington and Moscow could deny they were linked.

After introducing a flashpoint, you might want to help students refocus their discussion by considering critical questions such as these:

1. Who is affected by this event or development, and how?
2. Is there any uncertainty about what has taken place? How credible is the report?
3. Does this event or development affect the feasibility of any policy options? If so, how?
4. Does this event or development affect the desirability of any policy options? If so, how?