The Issue

Migration from Central America has long been debated in the United States. The Central American region commonly known as the Northern Triangle is made up of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. This region has experienced growing displacement since the 1990s due to chronic violence, political corruption, climate change, and a lack of economic opportunity. Increasingly, migrants from the region are making the arduous journey through Mexico to the U.S. southern border. These migrants seek both economic opportunities and protection from violence and persecution.

Under U.S. and international law, individuals fleeing dangers in their home country are entitled to certain rights and legal protections. Migrants who want to immigrate to the United States can receive these protections by applying in advance for legal protection as refugees. However, not everyone is able to do so. Migrants can also receive protections by traveling to the United States and claiming asylum at the border. Being granted asylum allows an individual to legally live in the United States, but it involves a long and complicated process. Although most countries agree on the rights and protections that asylum seekers are entitled to, no international organization oversees asylum claims. Instead, governments are left to determine whether the various reasons driving individuals to migrate qualify them for asylum. This setup allows countries to make arbitrary decisions or bypass asylum norms entirely. Distinguishing between those with credible fears—who are entitled to asylum—and those seeking economic opportunity—who are not—can be an extremely difficult task. Meanwhile, the number of asylum seekers arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border is growing. For the period 2015–2019, the number of people migrating from Central America grew tenfold, with most headed for the United States.

Policymakers considering asylum policy need to weigh both economic and security issues. This includes considering the security risks individuals entering the country could pose. Furthermore, it requires crafting a policy to govern those awaiting a decision in their asylum cases as well as weighing the economic costs and benefits of absorbing an influx of migrants. On top of these considerations, an intensifying political debate over immigration policy means that any policy concerning asylum seekers faces potential political backlash. Public attention on and debate about immigration has intensified. As displacement has reached record highs globally immigration policies are crucial to the U.S. economy, national security, and global stability. 

Decision Point–Set in 2019

The Department of Homeland Security has recently reported that over the coming months, a surge of migrants—more than double the average in recent years—will arrive at the southern border seeking asylum. The asylum seekers are mostly—though not exclusively—from Northern Triangle countries. U.S. media reports have begun calling the U.S. border “out of control.” Several hard-line anti-immigration groups have begun holding rallies protesting perceived U.S. leniency on immigration. The president has called a meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) and has asked members to consider the economic, security, social, and political needs of the United States. The president has asked NSC members to  provide advice, taking into account humanitarian and legal concerns as well as the potential effects of U.S. immigration policy on the rest of the world. NSC members will need to consider both short- and long-term options to manage flows of asylum seekers. NSC members also need to determine how to prioritize limited U.S. resources in order to most effectively reduce the strain on the asylum system.