Background
The Baltic states’ history is deeply intertwined with Russia. All three states fell under Russian rule in the 1700s, gained their independence after World War I, and remained that way until the Soviet Union invaded in 1940 and incorporated them into the USSR. The Baltic states’ status as union republics gave them the constitutional right to secede from the USSR. For almost half a century, that right was merely theoretical, but during 1990 and 1991, as the Soviet Union faltered, the three states became the first Soviet territories to exercise it. Each had seen the growth of new political movements opposed to Soviet rule during the perestroika era of the mid-1980s, a movement for political reform in the Soviet Communist Party. Although the Baltic states had initially declared independence in spring 1990, that independence was not fully realized until a year later, in August 1991, just four months before the formal dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Having regained independence, the Baltic states sought closer ties with the West. All three successfully pursued similar programs of political and economic reform, remaking themselves as democracies with booming market economies. They set their sights on membership in both NATO and the European Union in the 1990s and joined both organizations in 2004.
NATO membership was especially important to the Baltic states’ security strategies. The military alliance had served for decades as the anchor of collective security between the United States and Western Europe, committing the United States to defend its European allies against a Soviet invasion during the Cold War. The Baltic states saw the alliance as the best insurance policy against potential Russian aggression in the future. Russia objected to the states’ entry into NATO, but not forcefully. Russia’s relations with the West were largely cordial at this time, and, as part of what is informally called the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997, the alliance had declared it had no plans for permanent large-scale military installations on the territory of new members.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea in February 2014, after protestors calling for closer ties with the West removed Ukraine’s pro-Russia president from office, raised concern among NATO members about the potential for similar Russian actions in the Baltic states. Russia later held a referendum in which an overwhelming majority of Crimean voters chose union with Russia; NATO and EU members dispute the vote’s legality. In the following months, conflict broke out between pro-Russia separatist groups in eastern Ukraine and the new Ukrainian government. Russia stationed troops along its Ukrainian border in response and has allegedly supported separatists and supplied them with arms, though the Kremlin denies doing so.
Russia’s actions in Ukraine in 2014 convinced Western leaders they needed to better prepare for possible escalation by Moscow. In 2015, NATO governments agreed that all members, including the Baltic states, should increase defense spending. NATO has also significantly enlarged its military presence in the Baltic region, increasing air patrols and deploying ground troops in each of the Baltic states on continuous rotations.
The United States, for its part, has greatly increased funding for new support to NATO. In 2014, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, President Barack Obama created the European Reassurance Initiative (ERI), which bolsters U.S. military capabilities in Europe to support NATO’s efforts in deterring Russian aggression. As of 2016, the ERI receives nearly $800 million in funding for deterrence initiatives but has requested $3.4 billion for the 2017 fiscal year.
Baltic leaders took the lessons of the Crimea conflict to heart. They concluded that they needed to be able to respond quickly to the first signs of similar pressure from Russia against their own countries. That meant paying close attention to signs of cross-border support for Russian nationalists in their countries. NATO members have repeatedly emphasized their Article 5 commitment to Baltic members. Furthermore, they have warned Russia against a policy of pressure on NATO members similar to the policy it has pursued with the Crimean Peninsula.