Flashpoints

To add spice or challenge to the role-play, partway through the discussion throw in one of the following flashpoints—additional hypothetical developments that fit within the case’s existing decision point—or create your own. 

1. The U.S. Embassy in Manama reports that King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa has entered a hospital with a sudden and severe illness. Some unconfirmed reports indicate that the king may in fact have died. The reports set off intense speculation about a struggle for succession within the ruling family. U.S. diplomats and intelligence officers expect opposition leaders to try to take advantage of the crisis and press their demands. 
2. King Hamad announces plans for a new national dialogue aimed at agreeing on sweeping political reforms. He indicates a willingness to fully reconsider the powers of the monarchy, the parliament, and other institutions, saying that “no idea should be off the table.” He specifically mentions that the al-Wefaq political society has agreed to participate, and al-Wefaq leaders quickly confirm this. Immediate news reports express hope for progress, but also concerns that the dialogue could intensify divisions within the monarchy and within the opposition.
3. In a blistering speech, a prominent Iranian cleric castigates the Bahraini monarchy for what he calls its “long-standing subjugation and cold-blooded murder of our Shia brothers and sisters.” According to Iranian media, the cleric is speaking with the support of Iran’s senior leadership. He calls for the Iranian government to take action in support of Bahraini Shias, using force if necessary. Bahraini leaders quickly condemn the speech and raise the alert status of their security forces. The principal Bahraini opposition figures do not immediately react.

After introducing a flashpoint, you might want to help students refocus their discussion by considering critical questions such as these:

1. Who is affected by this event or development, and how?
2. Is there any uncertainty about what has taken place? How credible is the report?
3. Does this event or development affect the feasibility of any policy options? If so, how?
4. Does this event or development affect the desirability of any policy options? If so, how?