A Threat to Taiwan

Taiwan, formally known as the Republic of China, has been governed independently since 1949. In that year the Kuomintang (KMT) retreated to the island after losing the Chinese civil war to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP, which established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) that same year, views Taiwan as a renegade province. Today, Taiwan’s status is a reminder to the CCP that its civil war remains unfinished. The PRC vows to bring Taiwan under its control, by force if necessary. The United States had supported the KMT during the civil war, but determined that it should cut its losses and was prepared to stand aside if the PRC attacked. That all changed with the Korean War, when the United States and China found themselves on opposing sides of the conflict. During the Korean War, the United States positioned aircraft carriers between Taiwan and the mainland. The United States went on to sign a defense treaty with Taiwan and send economic aid, effectively freezing the conflict and treating the KMT as a government in exile.

In the 1970s, as it became increasingly clear that the KMT would be unable to retake the mainland, international recognition turned in favor of Beijing. In 1971, the United Nations gave China’s permanent seat on the Security Council to the PRC. The United States, seeking to capitalize on the ongoing split between China and the Soviet Union, began to pursue diplomatic normalization with the PRC. In 1979, the United States granted China full diplomatic recognition, cutting official ties with Taiwan and repealing the defense treaty.

When the United States decided to break ties with Taiwan, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). This piece of legislation obligated the United States to provide Taiwan with defensive arms and to maintain the capacity to protect Taiwan. The TRA also requires Washington to consider any unpeaceful effort to determine Taiwan’s future “of grave concern to the United States.” The TRA, however, remained ambiguous about whether the United States would actually come to Taiwan’s defense. 

When the United States broke relations with Taiwan, the KMT ruled Taiwan with an iron fist. In the years since, however, Taiwan has peacefully transitioned into one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies. It has become the ninth-largest U.S. trading partner and works with the United States on global issues such as public health, supply chain security, and women’s rights. It also manufactures nearly all of the most advanced computer chips in the world. Moreover, Taiwan’s geographic location helps keep China’s military bottled up. Taiwan's physical location prevents China from posing an even more severe threat to U.S. allies such as Japan and the Philippines.

For four decades, the United States has maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity.” This policy entails the United States’ refusal to definitively state whether it would defend Taiwan against China. This policy both deters China and prevents Taiwan from recklessly pursuing independence. Ultimately, destabilizing behavior is constrained; neither side can be sure whether the United States will come to Taiwan’s aid.

Today, however, the geopolitical dynamics are shifting. China now has the ability to fight a war with the United States over Taiwan. Signals from China point toward to a more bellicose posture toward the island. Its tactics include increasingly aggressive military fly-bys, economic coercion, and diplomatic pressure. Some experts are concerned that a misstep—such as a collision between Chinese and Taiwanese jets—could spiral out of control. Moreover, Chinese President Xi Jinping has stated the question of Taiwan cannot continue to be passed down from generation to generation. This statement has demonstrated a sense of Chinese urgency to make progress on the issue.