The Issue

Developed or industrialized countries, including the United States, have been releasing greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide into the atmosphere for more than a century. These gases are released by burning fossil fuels for power, heat, transport, and industrial activity. Recently, rapid economic growth in major developing countries such as Brazil, China, and India has led to significant increases in their greenhouse gas emissions as well. Greenhouse gases trap the sun’s heat in the atmosphere causing a phenomenon known as global warming, which leads to changes in the planet’s climate.

Climate change poses risks not only to the environment but also to the security and livelihood of people in the United States and around the world. These effects include rising sea levels, greater heat extremes, more intense precipitation events, deeper droughts, stronger storms, and bigger wildfires. If current trends continue, growing plentiful and affordable food for a rising global population could become more difficult. Populations in low-lying areas—including many of the world’s major cities—could be forced to move. In addition, more extreme weather could threaten the health of billions of people.

Rising greenhouse gas emissions could be addressed through policy at both domestic and international levels. However, if countries with significant emissions fail to act, the overall level of warming will increase. Multiple international agreements on climate change have been developed over the years. The most notable of these is the 2015 Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement aims to prevent global warming above 2°C by the end of the century. Given the grave risks, the Paris Agreement urges countries to strive to contain global warming below 1.5°C. However, reducing greenhouse gas emissions worldwide will not be easy. Modern economies depend on fossil fuels. Alternative sources such as solar and wind energy are growing. However, alternative sources  cannot fully replace fossil fuels yet. Moreover, currently available measures to increase energy efficiency are costly and time-consuming. Climate change  is a difficult issue for policymakers. The questions of how to cut emissions and prepare for climate repercussions, and who should bear the costs of doing so, have few simple answers.

Hypothetical Decision Point

A major international climate summit is approaching. At the UN climate summit in Paris in 2015, world leaders pledged to reduce or limit their countries’ emissions and to monitor progress toward these goals. However, a new scientific report warns that governments will need to make urgent and unprecedented changes beyond their commitments under the Paris Agreement to avoid serious and potentially irreversible environmental consequences. Despite this alarming information, countries have taken relatively few additional steps toward meeting ambitious targets and in some cases have even retreated from their climate commitments to the Paris Agreement. 

Most heads of governments, including the president of the United States, are attending the upcoming summit. All eyes are on Washington to see if the United States will present a new U.S. negotiating strategy in light of the report. The president has called a meeting of the National Security Council (NSC) to decide if and how the United States will propose creating a more robust climate agreement that can prevent the most devastating consequences of climate change. NSC members will need to consider the potential results of climate change as well as the potential effects of proposed measures to mitigate it. Members will also need to consider the need to secure international support for the U.S. approach from both developed and developing countries.